In Vladimir region from September 19 till October 12 the number of active cases of coronavirus increased 1.83 times. While on September 19 in the region there were 2,047 patients diagnosed with coronavirus but not discharged or declared dead, as of October 12 there were already 2,741 active patients. This is a record high for the entire period of observation.
Contributing to this was the rapid increase in morbidity that began in our region on September 19. On this day 154 new cases were detected. Each subsequent day (with two exceptions) their number increased. In the last three days Vladimir region records a record daily incidence (256, 260 and 265 cases respectively).
In addition, the region observed jumps down in the statistics of daily recoveries. On September 18, Rospotrebnadzor reported 218 discharged citizens in the 33rd region, and on September 22 there were already 96. Since the end of the month, the daily number of those who were cured has been considerably lower than the number of Vladimir citizens who fell ill.
A similar picture is observed with the death rate. They went up in September, but a significant increase in adding coronavirus deaths to the official statistics was observed from September 14 to 19. The average with a window of seven days on September 19 was 12 people per day; by October 5, it had dropped to 5.2. The last time such a jump was observed was on December 31 and was probably due to the off-days of the staff responsible for updating the statistics.
All-Russian statistics also shows different behavior of the indicators before and after the elections to the State Duma. Political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, in particular, drew attention to the strangeness.
"During August and September before the elections there was a sacred threshold - 800 deaths per day, no higher. Only on two days - August 12th and August 8th - this critical threshold was crossed. No more than 800. Three times in August, I think there were 799 deaths, 796, 798, 793, but the ceiling of 800 was not crossed. And those who work with numbers understand how that works. It is clear that they were told from above, "Please keep it at this level, because the elections are coming up.
And, accordingly, people kept dying. You can't change the statistics of the registry office. Now, this accumulated layer of people who have died, but not voiced, should be smeared over time," Oreshkin told Ekho Moskvy radio station.
A more immediate indicator to judge the development of the pandemic is the statistics of the regional health department on the number of hospitalized patients. In contrast to other indicators, the growth of hospitalizations did not react to the date of the elections to the State Duma. It should be noted that it was from September 19 that the regional health department began to deploy additional beds for patients (or more precisely, began to reflect this process in the statistics).
In the Vladimir region, the increase in hospitalizations began on September 7, a week and a half before the Duma elections. While the official data of the regional Rospotrebnadzor showed no increase in morbidity, the number of hospitalizations increased from 952 to 1175. The rate of hospitalizations continued to grow after 19 September, reaching a record 1,923 cases by 12 October.