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Over Two Coronavirus Years, Excess Mortality in the Vladimir Region Rose to 8200

In 2021 the birth rate was two and a half times lower than the death rate

In December 2021 in the Vladimir region there were 2436 deaths and 827 births. Compared to the previous year the mortality rate was lower. December 2020 was at the peak of the pandemic and 2,785 deaths were registered then.

In pre-pandemic 2019, December deaths in the region were 1,842; in 2018 they were as high as 1,814, down 25 percent from the year 2021. This data was provided by the regional Department of Justice.

The surge in births in 2020 and 2021 followed a decade of small but steady overall declines in mortality and increases in life expectancy. The coronavirus reversed this optimistic trend.

A significant decline in the birth rate in the Vladimir region also contributes to the natural decline of the population. If from 2011 to 2016 the birth rate was not below the mark of 15 thousand people per year, in 2021 it was below 10 thousand people, falling by a third. In 2021 the number of newborns was two and a half times lower than the mortality rate (the official data do not take into account newborns of Vladimir citizens, whose parents went to give birth in neighboring regions).

On average, 22,530 people died each year in the region over the five years from 2015 to 2019. In 2020, 24,619 people of Vladimir died, in 2021 - 28,638 people. Excess mortality over the two years was about 8,200 people. Specialists believe that this number includes those who died directly from the coronavirus and its consequences, as well as those who did not wait for quality medical care due to overburdened health care system.

"What worries me the most, and what I think worries people the most, is the monstrous increase in mortality. Because the kind of excess mortality growth that we continue to have…every month the statistics come in that are worse than the previous month and worse than the previous year. We had a 15% increase in mortality for 2020, now we're already at 17% and the increase continues. This is a monstrous growth, which leads to depopulation, while the birth rate is also falling.

It has something to do with the coronavirus. The growth started in May [2020]. Naturally, the cause here is not only the coronavirus, but also the change in the medical situation. The shift of attention to the coronavirus has led to less attention being paid to traditional cancer and heart diseases, which give a large proportion of deaths. In terms of public opinion, this is reflected in the fact that we have growing fears. What comes to the forefront is the loss of health and illness. Among social problems, the problem of the quality of medical care stands out," Dmitry Petrosyan, a candidate of philosophical sciences and sociologist, told ProVladimir in an interview.

Russia is among the countries where excess mortality rates are much higher than the official statistics on coronavirus deaths. The Vladimir region is no exception. According to official data, from the beginning of the pandemic until December 31, 2021, 2927 people died of coronavirus in the region, which is 35.2% of excess mortality rates.

The regional department of the Registry Office provides mortality statistics by municipality. It contains some technical distortions due to the fact that the deceased in hospitals are recorded in the mortality reports of the district where the hospital is located, rather than in the place of actual residence. Nevertheless, the general trend suggests that coronavirus victims were more likely to be residents of large cities. The tragic indicator increased most significantly in Vladimir, Kovrov and Murom. It is also high in Suzdal district.

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